1. Women Closer To Combat

    GT_FEMALE-MARINES_120210

    by Chris Bodenner

    Some social progress out of the Pentagon yesterday:

    The new rules, slated to go in effect this summer, will open up about 14,000 additional jobs to women and reflect the realities of asymmetrical warfare in Iraq and Afghanistan where there are few "safe jobs." In some cases, the Pentagon is simply lifting restrictions on jobs women have already been doing. As ABC News explains, "Typically, these jobs have been made available at the combat brigade level, but not at the lower battalion level, which was deemed too close to combat situation."

    Rick Santorum responded to the new regulations:

    I think that could be a very compromising situation, where people naturally may do things that may not be in the interest of the mission because of other types of emotions that are involved. It already happens, of course, with the camaraderie of men in combat, but I think it would be even more unique if women were in combat.

    Pundits on the left and right are interpreting those ambiguous words to mean that he thinks women are simply too emotional to deal with combat. It seems more likely, however, that Santorum is saying that male soldiers will have to endure a new kind of emotional stress seeing women face death and dismemberment on the battlefield.

  2. The View From Your Window

    College Station-TX-1022am

    College Station, Texas, 10.22 am

  3. Would Arming The Syrians Even Help? Ctd

    by Patrick Appel

    Andrew Exum looks at what Syrian rebels are up against: 

    According to the 2011 Military Balance, Syria has:

    1. 4,950 main battle tanks.
    2. 2,450 BMPs.
    3. 1,500 more armored personnel carriers.
    4. 3,440+ pieces of artillery.
    5. 600,000 men under arms in the active and reserve forces.

    Now, for the sake of argument, let's say Syria can only field half of the above equipment and personnel due to maintenance issues and defections or whatever. We're still talking about a ridiculous amount of advanced weaponry. What arms, then, are we talking about giving these guerrilla groups? Nukes?

    Earlier discussion here.

  4. Tweet Of The Day

    by Zack Beauchamp

     

  5. Who Is Marriage For?

    by Patrick Appel

    A reader writes:

    I am a sociologist who does research on families and child well-being, and I am strongly pro-marriage equality. However, while I am aware of all of the social science showing that children of gay/lesbian parents do just as well as children of opposite-sex parents, I did not consider this evidence when forming my opinion.

  6. The German Problem

    Germany

    by Maisie Allison

    Christopher Caldwell studies it: 

    [S]o big and rich is Germany—particularly now that reunification has brought its population to 80 million—that joining it in anything means playing by its rules. This is not Germany’s fault. It is the classic “German problem” that has confronted Europe for the whole modern era. It was camouflaged for six decades only by Germany’s reluctance to express any wishes whatsoever. 

  7. An Incredibly Misleading Poll On Syria

    by Zack Beauchamp

    There's been a spate of recent articles citing a poll that purports to show 55% of Syrians want Assad to hold on. Today alone, James Traub and Daniel Larison have both used it, and Jonathan Steele made the result a key point in a column a few weeks back inveighing against Western involvement in the country. So it's worth noting the finding has been debunked. Brian Whitaker explains:

    The 55% figure comes from an internet survey by YouGov Siraj for al-Jazeera's Doha Debates. Just over 1,000 people across the Arab countries were asked their opinion of Assad and an overwhelming majority – 81% – thought he should step down...A look at the methodology of the survey shows that 211 of the respondents were in Levantine countries and that 46% of those were in Syria. In other words, the finding is based on a sample of just 97 internet users in Syria among a population of more than 20 million. It's not a meaningful result and certainly not adequate grounds for such sweeping conclusions about national opinion in Syria.

    And internet polling is inherently unreliable even 1) with a larger sample size and 2) when the target population isn't burdended by interent censors. This is obviously a little thing, but myths like "55% of Syrians support Assad" tend not to go away unless rigorously and publicly combated.

  8. Colbert Bait

    by Chris Bodenner

    There appears to be a spate of satirical stunts by Democratic lawmakers recently. This one is right out of Monty Python:

    Oklahoma legislators introduced a bill yesterday that says "the life of each human being begins at conception."  But state Sen. Constance Johnson, a Democrat, decided that the bill, SB 1433, didn't go far enough to protect unborn children. Johnson added an amendment to the bill, posted online by The Lost Ogle, that says life actually begins at ejaculation:  "However, any action in which a man ejaculates or otherwise deposits semen anywhere but in a woman’s vagina shall be interpreted and construed as an action against an unborn child."

    From Virginia:

    Irked by abortion bill, Va. senator adds rectal exams for men

  9. "A Party Stuck In Default Mode"

    by Maisie Allison

    Earlier this week, George Will panned the GOP's insane rhetoric on defense. Jacob Heilbrunn seconds him: 

    The real problem with the GOP approach is that it maintains the illusion of omnipotence. It leaves behind great-power status for the "I am the greatest" approach. The GOP worships unilateralism. This has less in common with Reagan than George W. Bush. Now war with Iran—and Syria?—is preoccupying the minds of the neocons. But knocking out Iranian nuclear facilities, as the estimable Walter Pincus reminds us today, is no simple task. In pushing for a strike, or even regime change, the GOP, to borrow from Talleyrand, has "learned nothing and forgotten nothing." The point, to put it another way, is that the policy of bombast but not bluff—which is to say that America really has invaded several countries in the past decade at great cost—has largely failed. 

    Jazz Shaws recognizes that Republicans should probably tone it down, if only because Obama's foreign policy record is extremely popular: 

  10. Ask Me Anything: What's Palin's Role In The Race?

    Question? askandrew@thedailybeast.com Video archive here.

  11. The Weak Case Against Equality

    by Patrick Appel

    Yesterday, I noted that defenders of Prop 8 "couldn't produce a single expert witness who could make a strong secular case against marriage equality." Dahlia Lithwick reports that the defense of Prop 8 hasn't gotten any stronger:

    The evidence, the data, and the experts overwhelming agree that gay marriage does not harm children. And that leaves opponents of gay marriage to argue a tautology: Gay marriage is wrong because it’s wrong.

    One thing is certain: The problem for proponents of Prop 8 wasn’t that they hadn’t had enough time to hone their argument. Four months later, during the argument at the appeals court, Charles Cooper again found himself unable to articulate a single plausible reason for why the ban existed in California.

  12. Santorum Ahead Nationally?

    Santorum_GT

    by Patrick Appel

    It looks like Santorum is tied or ahead of Romney in national polls. How Josh Marshall views the surge:

    [T]his isn’t about Rick Santorum who is clearly a 2nd or 3rd tier candidate, it’s showing the depth of Romney’s weakness as a candidate — both as a candidate in this particular political moment and simply as a candidate for office in general.

    (Photo: Presidential candidate and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum speaks during an address to the 39th Conservative Political Action Committee February 10, 2012 in Washington, DC. By Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images)

  13. The Report That Could Decide The Election

    by Patrick Appel

    Nate Silver studies how jobs reports impact presidential approval ratings. His conclusion:

    [I]t seems that some of the benefit an incumbent derives from strong economic headlines is from the headlines themselves. Speaking of which, there is one set of headlines that could be especially important to Mr. Obama. On Friday, Nov. 2, the government will release a jobs report — just four days in advance of the Nov. 6 election.

    That will represent the first time since 2000 that a jobs report immediately preceded a presidential election. If the election is too close to call at that point, the report could very easily make the difference.

  14. An Electoral Dud?

    GT_SANTORUM_120209

    by Zack Beauchamp

    Paul Waldman assesses the NRA's clout in Congressional elections: 

    To determine just how powerful the NRA really is on election day, in recent months I assembled a database covering the last four federal elections: 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010. These years cover two presidential and non-presidential years, as well as two significant Democratic victories and two significant Republican victories. I gathered data on the outcome of every House and Senate election, including the margins of victory, the money spent by each candidate, the partisan character of each district, and whether the NRA made an endorsement in the race and how much money they spent.

    The conclusion to be drawn from these data will be surprising to many: The NRA has virtually no impact on congressional elections.

  15. Is Anything Worth Sacrificing Reelection For?

    by Zack Beauchamp

    Matt Glassman suggests so:

    If you’re a liberal, ask yourself: how many years would I give up control of Congress and/or the Presidency in order to get the health care bill I like? Likewise, if you’re a conservative, ask yourself: how many years would I give up control in order to achieve substantial Medicare reform, or social security privatization. It seems to me that these partisan goals are easily worth giving up power for two or three Congresses (conditional, of course, on not being repealed). And once such actions are taken, it strikes me as silly to bemoan one’s electoral condition subsequent to the policy.

  16. Were McMansions A Phase?

    House_Size

    by Maisie Allison

    New research suggests that the trend toward downsizing in the US will continue even after the economy recovers:

    After many years of dramatically increasing home size in America - from an average of 983 square feet in the 1950s up to 2300 square feet in the 2000s, despite declining household sizes - the trend appears finally to be going in the other direction. The real estate research firm Trulia found in 2010, for example, that the median "ideal home size" for Americans had declined to around 2100 square feet. More than one-third of survey respondents reported that their ideal preference was lower than 2000 square feet.  ... Data from the census are also consistent in direction with those from Trulia's survey, though more subtle in the degree of change:  according to the census, the median size of a new U.S. home in 2010 was 2,169 square feet, up from 1,525 sqare feet in 1973 but down from the 2007 peak of 2,277 square feet.

    Chart from Dylan Matthews.

  17. The Long Primary, Ctd

    by Patrick Appel

    Weigel expects the primary race to continue for several months:

  18. Hathos Alert

    by Zack Beauchamp

    A CNBC guide to dating "a Wall Street Man." One nugget:

    Tell stories that are short and sweet because the mind of a Wall Street man is always moving so rapidly and focusing on so many different things that his attention span for social stories is very short; don’t be insulted by this, just tell your stories in a way that he can listen. Save your long, draw-out stories for chit-chatting with your girlfriends.

    (Hat tip: Bhaskar Sunkara)

  19. Creepy Ad Watch

    by Chris Bodenner

    You will never feel more empathy for cooling towers:

    (Hat tip: LikeCool)

  20. Something To Look Forward To

    by Maisie Allison

    In a new book, Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler claim that in 25 years "everybody could have the access to the resources and knowledge to live fulfilling lives." Ronald Bailey summarizes their argument: 

    Diamandis and Kotler begin by asking, why do so many of us despair of the future? They note that natural selection has shaped our brains to be hyper-vigilant about threats. The result is negativity bias, that is, a disproportionate focus on negative information and experiences. Comparatively rare bad news crowds out the more plentiful good—and we believe the world is going ever faster straight to hell. The two abundance visionaries strongly counter that, in fact, much of humanity has never had it better ... They point out that doomsters only see the slices of the pie getting smaller; meanwhile, exponential technological progress is creating more pies for everyone.  Solutions to various scarcities don’t just add up, they multiply. 

  21. The Power Of Pink, Ctd

    Tatas

    by Chris Bodenner

    A reader writes:

    I haven't read the whole thread, but so far I haven't seen a mention of my personal hot poker in the eye: the sticker with "Save the ta-tas" across a pink ribbon.  There's something so dismissive and demeaning about that. I actually have a pretty good sense of humor, but that sticker makes me want to bash out the windows of the car to which it attached and give the driver a vigorous titty twister. What's next? "Save them big old titties!"Screen shot 2012-02-09 at 3.15.09 PM I've known a number of people who have had various forms of cancer, including breast cancer, and it hasn't been cute or funny yet.

    Another writes:

    Your reader's comments on the futility of "pink ribbon day" at work brought to mind this article from the Onion, which, as usual, has the best commentary on the subject of pink ribbon-mania.  It's entitled "6,000 Runners Fail To Discover Cure For Breast Cancer."

    (Photo by Jim Farmer. Screenshot from an online store.)

  22. Malkin Award Nominee

    by Chris Bodenner

    "[The France Revolution] was a secular revolution on which we relied on the goodness of each other. This is the left’s view of where America should go. And of course where did France go? To the guillotine. To tyranny. If there are no rights that government needs to respect, then what we see with ObamaCare is just the beginning of what government will do to you," - Rick Santorum, running with his guillotine talk this week.

  23. Ad War Update

    by Maisie Allison

    The Romney campaign previews its latest line of attack against Santorum (from a Thursday press release): 

    Santorum washington

    Via Jonathan Last, who snarks

    Yup. The Romney campaign is portraying Rick Santorum as a guy chasing $100 bills.

    For some reason Romney's PAC is dwelling on the Reagan wars

    The Democratic PAC American Bridge puts out a pretty good "Shit Mitt Says" video (though Zeke Miller pleads,"Does this mean the meme is really dead?"): 

  24. The Daily Wrap

    by Zack Beauchamp

    Today on the Dish, Patrick slammed Maggie Gallagher's closemindedness on marriage equality and defended his position against criticism while Chris deepened our understand of Gallagher here and here. I kept up the the God debate and criticized the idea that ridiculous levels of defense spending were necessary to stop genocide. We discovered Romney could very well fall short of the winning delegate total, found the roots of his "flexibility" in his business background, saw him on thin ice in the culture war debate. Santorum created real problems for the GOP and Ron Paul snuck away a fair 138572487number of delegates. A third party candidacy was not viable, the longer primary was damaging the Republicans, and marriage equality and Obama's legacy were at serious issue in the campaign.

    We surveyed the ongoing debate on the contraception mandate (which might not be the best issue for the GOP), discovered an extraordinary speech (above) on marriage equality from the Washington fight, wound up the "Power of Pink" thread, noticed that the Constitution was going out of style, and declared it "Best CPAC Ever!" A new film smelled like propaganda for the Navy SEALs, analysts debated arming Syrians against the regime, and a fatwa got sent over Twitter. "Europe" had similar income distribution to the US, the profit incentive hurt the financial sector, privatization had risks, an adorable child explained logos, and the Prius fallacy/rebound effect got scrutinized. Being a patient was traumatic, good pain doctors were in short supply, power explained male violence, and waking up was scientifically fascinating. AAA here, Yglesias Nominee here, VFYW here, MHB here, and (an awesome) FOTD here.

    (Photo: Tea Party activist William Temple, wearing a Herman Cain button, waits for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) to deliver a speech titled, "Is America Still an Exceptional Nation?" during the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on February 9, 2012 in Washington, DC. Thousands of conservative activists are expected to attend the annual gathering in the nation's capital. By Win McNamee/Getty Images)

  25. Obama's Legacy

    Obama_Supporter

    by Patrick Appel

    Jim Fallows believes that Obama's loss or win this November will help define it:

    If a year from now Obama is settling in for a second term, a halo effect will extend back to everything he did during his first four years. His programs will be more effective in reality, since he will get that many more years to cement them in with follow-up measures, supportive appointments to federal agencies and the courts, and possible vetoes of any attempts at repeal. And, through the lens of history, they will seem more effective, since whatever he did in his first term will appear to have been part of an overall plan that was ratified through reelection.

    Yet if a year from now a just-beaten former President Obama is thinking about his memoirs and watching his former appointees blame one another, and him, for the loss, the very same combination of missteps and achievements will be viewed as a narrative leading inexorably to defeat.

  26. Personalizing The Political, Ctd

    Screen shot 2012-02-09 at 4.53.14 PM

    by Chris Bodenner

    Last year Jamie McGonnigal, a gay writer, spoke with Maggie Gallagher's son:

    Patrick is now a young adult, writing musicals in New York City. He identifies as straight, and given his chosen occupation, he spends a great deal of time with LGBT people. We offered Patrick the opportunity to tell his side of things, but given the obvious personal conflict he feels about the situation, he declined. Though Patrick doesn’t want to comment directly, it has become clear that his views differ from his mother’s. According to Patrick, Maggie has been very supportive of his career and has not obstructed her son’s goals and dreams – like a mother should. One thing Patrick did say, which I don’t think he’d mind sharing is "Maybe one day I’ll write a hell of a musical about this." Patrick’s a good guy who doesn’t deserve to be in the middle of this – but we feel that his and Maggie’s story is an important one that demonstrates the strength of a "non-traditional" family.

  27. Why Contraception?

    by Patrick Appel

    David Frum fears that Republicans are fighting a losing battle:

    Republicans are not proposing to allow employers and plans to refuse to cover blood transfusions if they conscientiously object to them (although there are religious groups that do). Or vaccinations (although there are individuals who conscientiously object to those as well). Or medicines derived from animal experimentation. (Ditto.)

    No, Marco Rubio's Religious Freedom Restoration bill provides for one conscientious exemption only: contraception and sterilization.  Which means it will be very hard if not impossible to persuade the target audience that this debate is not in fact about contraception. Everybody quite sure that's a wise debate to have?

    Earlier coverage of the contraception debate here.

  28. How Do You Argue With Someone Immune To Evidence? Ctd

    by Patrick Appel

    Maggie Gallagher says that her opposition to marriage equality cannot be changed. Rod Dreher, who also opposes gay marriage, compares me to Gallagher:

    I wonder what evidence would convince Patrick, or his boss, to change their minds about same-sex marriage. I’m confident that there is none, that they are as committed to their position in favor of it as Gallagher is against it. This is not to say that the positions are equally rational, but only that at bottom, each side reasons from first principles about the way the world works — principles that are not ultimately derived from reason, but that reflect a religious, or quasi-religious, interpretation of the world. Karl Popper said that in matters of empirical observation — which is to say, in science — a claim has to be in principle falsifiable. That is, it has to be able to be proven wrong, in theory. If there is no way to demonstrate empirically that the hypothesis is wrong, then the claim becomes something other than science. 

    If there were real evidence that marriage equality made gay couples unhappy, if the children of gay parents were severely damaged due to their upbringings, and if same-sex marriage truly were a grave threat to straight marriage, I'd reconsider my views.

  29. Yglesias Award Nominee

    by Maisie Allison

    "Osama bin Laden and many other “high-value targets” are dead, the drone war is being waged more vigorously than ever, and Guantanamo is still open, so Republicans can hardly say that Obama has implemented dramatic and dangerous discontinuities regarding counterterrorism. Obama says that, even with his proposed cuts, the defense budget would increase at about the rate of inflation through the next decade. Republicans who think America is being endangered by “appeasement” and military parsimony have worked that pedal on their organ quite enough," - George Will, Washington Post. As one reader puts it, "The whole column is one big YAN."

  30. Face Of The Day

    A photo that screams "Screw you guys, I'm going home":

    51Fy0

    by Chris Bodenner

    The story:

    [On Monday] Reddit user AThirdFoot posted a random photo of a guy sitting on Chicago’s green line reading a book and wearing a red shirt and a yellow hat. He titled the post "Cartman" to poke fun at the rider who resembled the portly South Park character that wears an identical outfit. Little did AThirdFoot know that the subway rider, 21-year-old Chris Kutill, a student at Columbia College Chicago, was in on the joke.

  31. Why Romney Shape Shifts

    by Patrick Appel

    Peter Suderman traces Romney's ideological flexibility to his business career:

    Consultants don’t have ideology; they have strategy. Their job is to take their current client’s side, whatever it is, and put a good polish on it while restoring whatever’s underneath. ... Those who have worked with Romney cite his flexibility as a virtue. “He’s spent his entire life in a world that’s constantly changing, where he has had to modify his thinking in order to address problems,” says Scott Meadow, his friend and former business partner. “I think it demonstrates something that I’ve always seen: an ability to adapt and change, and a willingness to accept that his thinking evolves. And not being afraid to change his mind and go in a different direction because that seems like the appropriate thing to do.” Meadow says Romney is “loyal to success,” whatever form it takes. “He’s flexible because he’s had to be,” Meadow says. 

  32. Profits Against Capitalism

    by Zack Beauchamp

    Justin Fox sees a conflict within financial markets:

    The profit motive is generally a good thing. It drives hard work, innovation, and the success of the capitalist system. But in financial markets, it's problematic. That's partly because of the zero-sum nature of most financial intermediation: Every penny in fees is that much less in investor returns. It's also the fact that most investors are incapable of judging whether their money manager or broker is doing right by them. And then there's the issue of risk, as illustrated by the recent financial crisis. ... The untempered pursuit of profit, then, is almost never good for the customers of the financial sector. Over the long run, it may not be good for the financial sector, either.

  33. Will Women Become Just As Violent As Men?

    Domestic-violence-statistics

    by Zack Beauchamp

    Jesse Prinz thinks history, not biology or psychology, best explains why men do more violence than women:

    Social history explains [the discrepency in violence] by proposing that men have taken power by their greater strength, leading to violent competition and the abuse of women. This approach correctly predicts cross-cultural variation in gender differences. As women gain economic power, they cease being treated as male property, age differences between romantic partners shrink, and violence against women diminishes. On the flipside, women who gain power, like Margaret Thatcher and Condalisa [sic] Rice, are often hawkish, suggesting that power, not gender, determines belligerence. Women in the judiciary dole out harsher penalties than men. And woman are committing more acts of domestic violence that previously recorded.

    (Chart by Steven Pinker)

  34. The Long Primary

    by Patrick Appel

    Noah Millman unpacks the new Republican nomination system:

    There is logic to wanting a more drawn-out primary process, rather than rushing to anoint a front-runner (as, for example, the Democrats did in 2004). The primaries become a proving ground, testing the candidates to see whether they measure up to their own hyped virtues as vote-getters. But, as the Democrats learned in 1984 and 1988, when you have a weak front-runner or no obvious front-runner, all the long campaign does is reveal that weakness (in the first case), and reveal the divisions in the party coalition (in the second case). The GOP is getting some of both this time.

    Bottom line: for a long primary process to reveal diamonds in the rough, the diamonds actually have to be there in the rough for the revealing.

  35. Would Arming The Syrians Even Help?

    by Zack Beauchamp

    Dan Drezner nods:

    [T]he Syrian population wants regime change. What’s going on inside of Syria is a civil war, and the government is clearly receiving ample support from both Russia and Iran. Arming the opposition at least evens the odds on the battlefield. The sad truth is that there is no good outcome, only different shades of terrible. Arming the Syrian resolution won’t bring a speedy, peaceful resolution, but it will make it harder for Assad’s military to systematically annihilate the opposition. In the short term, that appears to be the best one can hope for inside of Syria’s borders.

    Marc Lynch is appalled:

  36. The War On Pain Pills, Ctd

    by Patrick Appel

    In part two of his series, Radley Balko largely blames unethical pain management on the government's crackdown:

    [T]he reason so few painkillers are prescribed by pain specialists is likely that after a decade of policies targeting doctors with costly investigations and criminal charges, there simply aren't many conscientious pain specialists left.

  37. Mental Health Break

    by Chris Bodenner

    The Beastie Boys and Aliens get remixed:

  38. The Trauma Of Patienthood

    by Zack Beauchamp

    Doctor Harvey Max Chochinov explores the psychology of medical treatment:

    Think of even your most trivial recent health care encounter. Having your call put on hold; being kept waiting for an appointment; having to disrobe or expose private information; any of these might lead you to bemoan that you felt “just like a patient” — without a doubt, the most common critique of any health-care encounter. Feeling “like a patient” means feeling defined based on a problem or diagnosis. Personhood thrives on the expression of individual identity and being able to exercise freedom and choice. Patienthood is based on diagnostic specificity; it demands adherence to certain clinical or institutional conformities and routines, in return for which it provides organ or disease specific, evidence-based options.

  39. The Prius Fallacy, Ctd

    by Chris Bodenner

    In the above video, David Owen visualizes the rebound effect. A reader pushes back against the notion:

    I don’t drive a Prius, but I do drive a Ford Fusion Hybrid, which I bought a little over a year ago.  One thing I have noticed about driving it is that it has made me more sensitive to my energy usage.  Hybrids don’t automatically give you better mileage; electric mode only works at 45 mph and lower, it doesn’t kick in if the gas engine is cold, acceleration usually requires gas (I curse every red light), etc.  Maximizing mileage in a hybrid takes work and close attention - attention that anyone who invests in this still-expensive technology is going to give simply in order to feel he’s getting his money’s worth.  Thus I pay more attention to the length of my trips; I try to combine trips whenever possible in order to keep the engine warm; I cast longing eyes on plug-in hybrids, since my driving is sharply divided between ultra-short city driving and long trips.  Driving a hybrid has actually educated me on my driving habits and my personal contribution to energy depletion, pollution, and greenhouse gases; it does not make me feel I have permission to burn more energy.

    And perhaps that consciousness spills over into other living habits, such as keeping one's thermostat in check or remembering to turn off the lights. Another reader:

  40. Could A Third-Party Candidate Win?

    by Patrick Appel

    Nope:

    Over time, the parties have been moving apart. But both Democrats and Republicans are now closer to their own party and farther from the opposition party than at any time in the past four decades. Democrats on average place the Democratic Party exactly where they place themselves while they place the Republican Party very far to the right of where they place themselves. And Republicans on average place the Republican Party exactly where they place themselves while they place the Democratic Party very far to the left of where they place themselves. As a result, very few supporters of either party are likely to be tempted to vote for a centrist third party.

  41. Is America More Unequal Than Europe?

    America_Europe

    by Patrick Appel

    Jim Manzi compares America to the entire European continent:

    I took the data on income by quintile for each country in the EU, and ordered them from poorest to richest for Europe as a whole. If you start with the 1.5 million people who are the lowest quintile in any country of the EU (it turns out to be the lowest quintile in Bulgaria), then add the 0.5 million who are the lowest quintile in Latvia, and keep going until you have about 100 million people, you have an estimate for the lowest quintile for Europe as a whole.  This bottom quintile includes, for example, a majority of the population of Bulgaria, Latvia and Romania, and the bottom quintiles of the UK, Ireland, Italy and France. You can then build each of the quintiles this way. ...It turns out that America and Europe as a whole have extremely similar levels of economic inequality — Europe’s is just chunked by country

  42. Is 2012 A Marriage Equality Election?

    by Patrick Appel

    Adam Winkler worries that a Republican president would get to replace Ginsburg, a Justice likely to rule in favor of equality, with a social conservative:

  43. The GOP's Santorum Problem

    by Maisie Allison

    Larison revisits Santorum's hyper-aggressive, amnestic foreign policy: 

    According to Santorum, Bush’s record was mostly all right, except that he thinks it wasn’t aggressive or bold enough. According to Santorum, Bush had a foreign policy that was too humble, and he aims to correct that. ... [H]e thinks that his disastrous 2006 campaign in which he harped on “Islamic fascism” and the Venezuelan menace was a profile in political courage. It’s true that Romney and his advisers still think that Obama is vulnerable on foreign policy, which proves they aren’t paying much attention to public opinion, but Santorum would run a national campaign even more tone-deaf than Romney’s on these issues. If Obama is trouncing Romney on trustworthiness to handle international affairs, just imagine what he would do to Santorum.

    John Samples pictures a Santorum-Obama match-up: 

  44. "I Don't Miss The Sex"

    by Chris Bodenner

    A candid and incredibly moving speech from Maureen Walsh, one of two Republicans to help pass the marriage equality bill in the Washington State House yesterday:

    Walsh can be contacted here. The bill passed the state senate last week and Governor Gregoire has promised to sign it, so victory is in sight. Washington will be the seventh state (plus DC) to enact marriage equality.

  45. Is Paul's Plan Working? Ctd

    by Maisie Allison

    Alex Altman remains unconvinced. Weigel shows that Paul's quiet strategy to control the delegate process is "actually doable": 

    Paul's people believe that they understand the delegate process, and that the media does not. There is truth here: The delegate process is confusing, and I assume that Paul supporters have used their four years of organizing and studying in a fruitful manner. In an e-mail to supporters, they try to get granular about what's occuring.

    As an example of our campaign’s delegate strength, take a look at what has occurred in Colorado:  In one precinct in Larimer County, the straw poll vote was 23 for Santorum, 13 for Paul, 5 for Romney, 2 for Gingrich.  There were 13 delegate slots, and Ron Paul got ALL 13. ... We are also seeing the same trends in Minnesota, Nevada, and Iowa, and in Missouri as well.

    More on Paul's plan here.

  46. The Best CPAC Ever?

    Occupy-cpac

    by Maisie Allison

    Lachlan Markay reports that Occupy DC will be paying a visit to CPAC this weekend: 

    The protesters suggested pulling fire alarms in the hotel where the conference will take place, screaming “fire” during conference activities, “glitter-bombing” participants, cutting electrical power, and barricading entrances to the hotel, according to the source, who requested anonymity. “Speakers will be physically assaulted, not just verbally confronted,” the source told Scribe in an email. 

    Weigel adds

    One media manager for a few candidates told me she was warning clients to wear the sort of shoes they'd be comfortable sprinting away from danger in. ... This is a new CPAC phenomenon: Fear of violent disruption.

    Naturally, Robert Stacy McCain is invigorated by the possibility. Dan Amira speculates about the presidential politics at play:

  47. Personalizing The Political

    by Chris Bodenner

    Zack Ford pithily sums up the Oppenheimer piece on Maggie Gallagher: "[I]t is hard not to read the profile without feeling that when she says, 'Every child deserves a mother and a father,' what she really means is 'My child deserved a father.'" Yet such deeply personal roots for her fight against marriage equality contrasts sharply with the impersonal way she views marriage:

    Oppenheimer notes Gallagher’s claim that gay marriage is, for her, wholly detached from the happiness of individuals and that, according to Gallagher, marriage equality is an issue only insofar as it broadens her very narrow definition of what constitutes a marriage. This is why Gallagher is able to airily wave away the implications of her crusade, shrugging off suggestions that otherizing LGBT people contributes to the staggeringly high rate of LGBT teen suicide, violence against the LGBT community, etc., as so much collateral damage.

    By the way, this sentence from the profile popped out:

    [Her son] Patrick, now 31, a New York University graduate and aspiring musical-theater librettist, would not be interviewed.

  48. The Great Contraception Battle Of 2012

    Birth_Control

    by Patrick Appel

    Chart above from Sarah Kliff. TNC captions:

    The difference numbers for Catholics and White evangelicals are really interesting. It's almost as if the issue for Republicans, isn't so much a hard pitch to Catholics, as it is a hard pitch to white Evangelicals, with the hope of clipping off some conservative Catholics along the way.

    Eleanor Clift wonders whether the Obama administration provoked the controversy intentionally:

    The election won’t turn on these kinds of cultural issues, but they can generate emotion and passion. Obama’s job approval is just above 50 percent among younger voters, a group that gave him 66 percent of their vote in 2008. “They’ve got to get young people jazzed up, and there are very few issues that get young women more jazzed up than contraception,” says Cook. Indeed, the Obama campaign website highlights the issue of contraception, along with the fact that it will be free once the Affordable Care Act is implemented.

    David Link points out that the vast majority of Catholics use birth control:

  49. Could Mitt Fall Short Of 1,144?

    by Maisie Allison

    Philip Klein does some preliminary delegate math: 

    It is conceivable to craft the following general scenario: Romney wins states in the west and northeast, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum combine to dominate the south, Midwest and Appalachia, and Ron Paul siphons off a chunk of delegates. If such a scenario plays out, it’s possible to see how Romney could have problems getting over the top, even if analysts are broadly correct that his money and organization give him the edge. Just to provide a sense of how this could happen, I spent some time playing around with CNN’s delegate calculator feature and divided the states up two categories. ... [I]f Romney were to win all of the delegates in all of the states that I identified as solid or lean states, it would only get him to 1,008 delegates, according to the CNN calculator -- still short of the required 1,144.

    Even if Romney were to fall short, Alex Massie believes that Super Delegates would give Romney the win.

  50. Ask Me Anything: What About SOPA And PIPA?

    Question? askandrew@thedailybeast.com Video archive here.