Mental Health Break
One of 2011's biggest earwigs gets a Microsoft Paint literal remix:
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Can Sexuality Be A Choice? Ctd
A reader writes:
The Slate article you featured touches on something I've thought for a long time - the fixation on whether gay is "a choice" is interesting but irrelevant. A person's religion is more of a choice than the person's sexuality, and yet we don't allow discrimination based on religion. I'm not allowed to put up a "Catholics need not apply" sign on my business because I don't approve of their choice. "Choice" is a red herring. The question is purely about discrimination.
Scott Long adds:
What if our model for defending LGBT people’s rights were not race, but religion? What if we claimed our identities were not something impossible to change, but a decision so profoundly a part of one’s elected and constructed selfhood that one should never be forced to change it?
That's why excluding gays from hate crimes laws is so wack - because religion is protected category. Of course, I don't actually experience my faith as a choice, in the usual sense of the word. It feels as deep a part of me as my orientation. Zack Ford makes an important distinction:
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Romney's Weak Spot
Just over half of Americans doubt that he pays his fair share in taxes. After hearing about his actual income and tax rate, these people are less likely to think he “cares about people like me”—an attribute on which Romney is disadvantaged relative to Obama and which is a perennial predictor of how people vote. Information about his wealth also leads a larger fraction of Americans to believe he cares about the wealthy, and this belief in turn also reinforces the sense that he does not care about “people like me.” The more Romney’s wealth and taxes are discussed, the more he may seem like someone who cannot relate to ordinary voters. This may explain why, during a time in which his wealth and taxes were in the news, negative views of Romney jumped 20 points among whites with incomes below $50,000.
And that's a key demographic for past GOP victories. If Obama can increase support among those voters, things look much bleaker for Romney/Gingrich/Whoever. My view is that this is less damaging and relevant than that Romney's economic proposals want to tilt the balance even further in favor of the super-wealthy. Maybe there's a way for him to neutralize this in some small way. Jed Graham points out that Greg Mankiw, one of Romney's top economic advisors, opposes the carried interest loophole that Romney has (perfectly legally) taken advantage of. Graham's suggestion:
Perhaps there is a route by which Romney can propose to end the tax break as part of a deal that lowers tax rates while broadening the tax base. That would narrow the gap between taxes on regular income and investment gains, thus making favorable treatment of carried interest less meaningful. But Romney has resisted putting forward a comprehensive tax reform plan, presumably because its details would create plenty of more targets for foes to attack.
If Romney were to roll out a serious tax reform plan, Obama would be in trouble.
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Tattoos vs Circumcision
Brian Earp gets angry about the prosecution of a mother who allowed her 10 year old to get a tatt:
The truly troubling part involves a deep inconsistency in Georgia law regarding parental consent in general. This point can be made by offering a stark point of contrast. It is perfectly OK, under Georgia law, for a parent to consent to the surgical removal of her son’s foreskin, before he is able to form words or express an opinion, in a medically unnecessary, irreversible procedure which I have argued elsewhere is deeply immoral and should be banned. Tattoos? No way. Invasive, medically useless, nonconsensual genital surgery? Go right ahead.
And there's a Biblical bar on tattoos as well, for good measure:
"Ye shall not make any cuttings in your flesh for the dead, nor print or tattoo any marks upon you: I am the Lord."
When you read the fundamentalist defense against tattoos, you also can't help noticing the rationale:
[God] spoke these words in Genesis 1:31,"And God saw every thing that he had made, and, behold, it was very good. And the evening and the morning were the sixth day." When the Lord created the human body, He pronounced that the way He created it was very good.
So why forbid superficial mutilating by tattoo but demand it by permanently altering a key part of a man's body, the genitals? In a manner that, unlike tattoos, permanently scars a part of the body that provides intense physical pleasure. The double-standard is insane.
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Face Of The Day
Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney addresses a speech to the Hispanic Leadership Network at Doral Golf Resort in Miami, Florida, January 27, 2012. Florida will hold its Republican primary on January 31, 2012. By Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images.
Or, Romney doing his best Jim Carrey claw. Though it's probably closer to Jerry's.
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How Out There Is Grover Norquist?
So out there that if Obama and the Dems win this fall, and the temporary Bush tax cuts expire, this is his scenario:
Obama can sit there and let all the tax [cuts] lapse, and then the Republicans will have enough votes in the Senate in 2014 to impeach.
Today's "conservatives" would use the impeachment provision to oppose an elected president's fiscal policies. If you want to to grasp just how much contempt they really have for the Constitution and the institutions of government - something actual conservatives care about - absorb that fact.
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Booker vs Christie
One of the best defenses of marriage equality from a public official I have heard. And a great rebuttal to Chris Christie's deft but cowardly attempt to put civil rights in front of a referendum - even though the legislature is in favor:
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Gingrich Barrels Back, Ctd
A brutal new anti-Romney ad is in the works, according to Jon Karl. Our latest Ad War Update is here if you missed it.
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Israel Isn't America
Ed Kilgore takes issue with Romney's promise to not have "an inch of difference between ourselves and our ally Israel":
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The Cutest Thing You'll See Today
Xeni Jardin coos over the above video, shot by Surrey Wildlife Trust Mammal Project Officer Dave Williams:
The dormouse, a little rodent species you'll find in Britain, hibernate in the winter in nests they hide on the ground. The dormouse spends up to one-third of its life in hibernation, and typically begin that winter "sleep" when the first frost hits, and their food sources are gone.
More on the project's mission here. My first ever theatrical role was as a dormouse in a kiddie production of Alice in Wonderland. I hope my parents have burned all photographs of me in the costume.
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Did Romney Pack The House?
The crowd did cheer the individual mandate last night. Jonah Goldberg wonders:
There were definitely moments when Romney deserved the applause and cheers he got. But he also got applause and cheers for lines that have elicited no such response in the previous 8,000 debates. If Romney did pack the room with ringers, it was smart if also devious. Gingrich exposed a key vulnerability to his debate superpowers: he feeds off the energy from the audience. If Romney and his team figured that out and tampered with his energy source, that’s smart politics. It’s not like the President of the United States never has to speak to audiences that don’t cheer attacks on Saul Alinsky.
Frum adds:
The complaint reminds what a highly strung mechanism the Gingrich psyche is. If a condition as mildly adverse as a less-than-enthusiastic audience can so disable Gingrich's performance, you do have to wonder what real adversity would do to him. Actually, you don't have to wonder. We learned in the 1990s. Real adversity utterly disorients and defeats him.
Jon Ward has more. Relatedly, Romney surrogates are now systematically "infiltrating" Gingrich campaign events. Yesterday Romney asked supporters to "storm" the debate.
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GDP Reax
Chad Stone was disappointed by the GDP report:
Critically, the jump during the third quarter in final sales of goods and services— a better measure of underlying demand than GDP —didn’t continue in the fourth quarter ... [see chart above] . More than half of the growth in GDP in the fourth quarter came from inventory accumulation — that is, unsold goods piling up on the shelves.
Karl Smith counters:
There is ... a bit of handwringing over the fact that inventories contributed so much to GDP growth. But, what does this tell you. Most of this is autos. During the summer there was a major slowdown in parts from Japan. So Hondas and Toyotas started getting lean on lots. Now, they are coming back. That’s inventory adjustment. But, it tells us little about the underlying economy.
Yglesias thinks this kind of growth isn't enough:
GDP grew at a 2.8 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, up from 1.8 percent in the third quarter. That's a perfectly respectable number for an economy at full employment to put up, but it's not the kind of "catch-up" growth rate that gives you recovery from a recession.
Scott Hoyt warns:
It is clearly premature to conclude that the economy is off and running. The outlook appeared to be improving at this time last year, only to be derailed by an unexpected surge in commodity prices and fallout from the Japanese earthquake. It would not take much to repeat the pattern this year, since business and consumer sentiment remains brittle from the effects of the Great Recession and events in Washington.
Mark Thoma blames austerity:
[P]remature austerity -- cutting spending before the economy is ready for it -- is taking a toll on the recovery. The fall in government spending reduced fourth quarter growth by .93 percent -- if government spending had remained constant GDP growth would have been 3.7 percent rather than 2.8 percent. This is the opposite of what the government should be doing to support the recovery. We need a temporary increase in government spending to increase demand and employment through, for example, building infrastructure. That would help to get us out of the deep hole we are in, but instead the government seems to be trying to make it harder to escape.
Brad Plumer reminds everyone that these numbers aren't set in stone:
The current GDP numbers are just a first-pass estimate. These numbers will get revised at least twice in the months ahead. Sometimes they get revised very significantly (for instance, it took three years for the Bureau of Economic Analysis to figure out that the recession in the winter of 2008-2009 was much, much, much worse than anyone knew).
And Jared Bernstein hopes the economy increases its momentum:
[H]ave we hit escape velocity from the clutches of the Great Recession? I’d say no, not yet. We’re headed in the right direction, we’ve got some mo, but growth is too slow and there’s still too much fragility and slack in the system.
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Paul Personally Approved His Newsletters
The WaPo reports:
[P]eople close to Paul's operations said he was deeply involved in the company that produced the newsletters, Ron Paul & Associates, and closely monitored its operations, signing off on articles and speaking to staff members virtually every day. "It was his newsletter, and it was under his name, so he always got to see the final product. . . . He would proof it,'' said Renae Hathway, a former secretary in Paul's company and a supporter of the Texas congressman.
TNC pounces:
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Bob Dole, Newt, And That Bucket
Defending Gingrich against Dole's dry humor, Yuval Levin clarifies the "empty bucket" situation:
It’s true that Newt Gingrich used to go around with an empty ice bucket in 1996. It was a symbol of his efforts to cut congressional perks and costs. For decades prior to 1995, every congressional office would receive a daily delivery of ice from a central freezer on the Capitol grounds. It was a holdover from the days before easy refrigeration, and it made for a nice demonstration of the sort of silly and costly perks that members of Congress received. When he became Speaker, Gingrich ended the practice and (in large part because that meant eliminating several staff positions) saved some $400,000 a year. Gingrich liked to use the ice bucket as a metaphor for Democratic governance: expensive, wasteful, and out-of-date. Whatever you think of the metaphor, it was something Gingrich talked about constantly, including on many occasions in the presence of Bob Dole.
(Photo: Newt Gingrich, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, and Robert Dole, Senate Majority Leader pose with an elephant outside the Capitol building in Washington on April 5, 1995. The elephant is part of the Ringling Brothers Barnum and Bailey Circus. By Richard Ellis/AFP/Getty Images.)
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Newt's Core Strength: The South
We should be wary of calling this race over yet, despite Romney's knee-capping of Newt last night. It looks as if Romney may will win in Florida after that debate and with a big ad advantage - but I'll be looking to see how well he does in the panhandle most of all. One stat leaps out from the new NBC/WSJ poll [PDF]:
Gingrich leads Romney in a four-way matchup, including Santorum and Paul, with “very conservatives” (47 percent to 17 percent), Tea Party supporters (46 percent to 21 percent), and in the South (45 percent to 21 percent). Those numbers gets even bigger in a two-way matchup. For example, in the South, one-on-one with Romney, Gingrich leads 65 percent to 28 percent.
The poll was started after the SC victory and before the Florida debates, so that may skew things in this volatile race. But that kind of advantage with Southern voters, if they do not agree to rally around the Romney establishment, means Super Tuesday becomes much more important.
My own suspicion is that many Southern Christianists will vote for the not-Mormon. I suspect Newt has a better chance of getting that role than Santorum.
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Yglesias Award Nominee
"'Israel Firster' has a nasty anti-Semitic pedigree, one that many Jews will intuitively understand without knowing its specific history. It turns out white supremacist Willis Carto was reportedly the first to use it, and David Duke popularized it through his propaganda network. And yet [M.J.] Rosenberg and others actually claim they’re using it to stimulate “debate,” rather than effectively mirroring the tactics of some of the people they criticize.
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Romney's Not-So-Blind Fannie-Freddie Investments
A reader writes:
Following the GOP debates, one salient fact jumps out at me: Mitt Romney lies frequently, easily, and shamelessly. This isn't Reagan's evasions or Clinton's careful parsing or Bush's leaving the lies to his underlings; this is bold-faced making up outrageous crap about his opponents and saying it loudly and directly and repeatedly. Why the hell isn't this the big story the media talks about? Surely the fact that Mitt Romney is a lying sack of shit is more important than Newt's affairs or Ron Paul's old pamphlets.
Money quote from the September 2011 Boston Globe article cited in the above video:
On his financial disclosure statement filed last month, Romney reported owning between $250,001 and $500,000 in a mutual fund that invests in debt notes of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, among other government entities. Over the previous year, he had reported earning between $15,001 and $50,000 in interest from those investments.
And unlike most of Romney’s financial holdings, which are held in a blind trust that is overseen by a trustee and not known to Romney, this particular investment was among those that would have been known to Romney.
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Hollywood's Condescension On Race, Ctd
A reader cringed at the roundtable discussion:
How awful for Viola Davis. She's an actress in Hollywood who just got nominated for an Oscar. She acts for a living. She probably has a nice big house and a nice expensive car, all from acting. She's "made it."
As for "[black actresses] are rarely cast as ideals of beauty or objects of desire. On the odd occasion that they are, only a certain look will do." Uh, yeah, no shit. That goes for every white actress as well. Or have you not heard of the plight of the actress that's always cast as the best friend and never the lead? Why would that be? Maybe cause they don't have the right look.
Bottom line: if you're able to support yourself by living out your dreams, and get nominated for Oscars to boot, and go to hot parties and get your ass kissed by fans and other actors and even journalists, no one should give a crap about your "plight."
Another:
"Halle Berry is having a hard time." ????
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Narcissism's Weight
A new study explores the connection between narcissism and stress:
The researchers found that men with high levels of unhealthy narcissism also had higher cortisol levels. Unhealthily narcissistic ladies had higher levels too, but the effect was much smaller. Higher levels of cortisol mean narcissistic dudes have a more active stress response, which could lead to cardiovascular problems — the study authors note that "future work might examine [whether] high narcissism in earlier life predicts poor health outcomes in later life." Though hanging out with a narcissistic person is certainly stressful, it's not obvious why narcissists themselves would be freaked out. Reinhard et al, however, note that previous research has shown that "narcissists are susceptible to a host of unrealistic self-views that are difficult and stressful to continuously maintain." Translation: convincing yourself that you're the most important person in the world is actually a lot of work.
(Photo: Republican presidential hopeful former Speaker Newt Gingrich fires back at a protester in the crowd as he speaks in the parking lot of the Wings Plus restaurant January 25, 2012 in Coral Springs, Florida. By Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images.)
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The Terms Of The Grand Bargain
Scott Galupo insists that long-term deficit reduction hinges on a proposal we've seen before:
[T]he terms of the Grand Bargain—entitlement cuts in exchange for higher taxes on the wealthy—remain the crux of our paralyzed deficit-reduction politics. Even if Obama loses in November, Democrats in Congress are going to continue insisting on those terms. And with the power of the routine filibuster on their side, as well as public sentiment in favor of hiking taxes on the rich, Democrats won't need control of the White House or either house of Congress in order to hold out for the Grand Bargain.
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Cool Ad Watch
Fresh from an incredible year rounded off by his immensely popular 'The Long Wait' for John Lewis, [director] Dougal [Wilson] lends his uniquely charming touch to a good cause: getting people to eat more vegetables. Celebrating cooking in its most vibrant form, we're reminded that healthy food doesn't have to be boring.
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What Do Elites Know Of Ordinary Americans?
Ilya Somin dissects Charles Murray's claim that "the people who have so much influence on the course of the nation have little direct experience with the lives of ordinary Americans":
[T]here is an important sense in which elite ignorance reduces the quality of public policy. In a complex society where people have a wide variety of preferences, not even the most knowledgeable elite experts can really have enough information to impose efficient paternalistic regulations that preempt individual choice. But this problem would persist even if all our elites had a deep and extensive knowledge of non-elite culture. The solution is not so much an elite that is better-informed about the culture of the masses, but an elite whose power over those masses is more limited and decentralized.
That said, I’m certainly open to the possibility that diminishing some types of elite ignorance would improve our society. But I’m skeptical that what we need to have a better elite is the kind of knowledge Murray emphasizes.
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Why Is US Economic Mobility So Low?
Tyler Cowen takes issue with the Europe comparison:
Why do many European nations have higher mobility? Putting ethnic and demographic issues aside, here is one mechanism. Lots of smart Europeans decide to be not so ambitious, to enjoy their public goods, to work for the government, to avoid high marginal tax rates, to travel a lot, and so on. That approach makes more sense in a lot of Europe than here. Some of the children of those families have comparable smarts but higher ambition and so they rise quite a bit in income relative to their peers. (The opposite may occur as well, with the children choosing more leisure.) That is a less likely scenario for the United States, where smart people realize this is a country geared toward higher earners and so fewer smart parents play the “tend the garden” strategy.
Quiggin isn't persuaded:
Cowen’s post is an exercise in defending the indefensible, and its weaknesses reflect that. As Mitt Romney’s tax returns show, wealthy Americans have the rules rigged in their favor from day one. And that’s assuming they obey the rules. Unlike the poor, they can mostly cheat with impunity. In these circumstances, it’s unsurprising that US inequality is so deeply entrenched. The only surprise is the suddenness with which the facts have become common knowledge.
(Chart via Jason Linkins)
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Paterno's Legacy - And Ours, Ctd
A reader comments on another's praise of Paterno:
I understand the desire to not throw away decades of idol worship over one scandal, but the argument is a bit lacking. Sure he made a lot of great coaching decisions, but when confronted with one of the most important decisions a person could possibly be confronted with, the decision to stop the possible endangerment of a child, he failed miserably. It seems society should require this to be part of his legacy. It lets others know it doesn't matter how successful you are - if you allow the endangerment of a child, none of your accomplishments matter. If it keeps kids safer from these sorts of acts, I'm ok with it.
Another is a bit more blunt:
Your reader's email about Paterno's legacy at Penn State and his personal thrill at receiving a thank you note from the Paternos was downright sickening.
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The Manufacturing Jobs Aren't Coming Back
Nicholas Thompson wants Obama to focus on software rather than hardware:
What really makes the iPhone work isn’t the hardware. Sure, the glass—designed by Corning in upstate New York and manufactured in China—is beautiful. But the transformative part of the phone is the software. The code behind the touch-screen was written here; the iOS operating system was written here; most of the apps that we use are written here. Thousands of companies, in fact, have been started here to write apps for Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android. Software remains a great American expertise, and it’s only becoming more important as processors shrink into ever more powerful forms.
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A Vision Of Home
Some calm and perspective in this intense political season. Robert T. Gonzalez explains how NASA made its newest awe-inspiring photo of Earth, "Blue Marble 2012:"
The camera on board [new satellite] Suomi NPP can only photograph small sections of Earth at a time, so the image you see here is actually something of a mosaic — a patchwork piece that collects photos taken from Suomi NPP over the course of January 4, 2012 and stitches them together. Of course, when I say that Suomi photographs "small sections" of the Earth's surface, what I mean is that they're smaller than an absurdly hi-res photo of the entire planet; in actuality, they're still mind-numbingly enormous — like the true-color image of the Southeastern United States featured here.
Go here for a comparison of the image to the previous "Blue Marbles," including the 1972 original.
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Should Obama Campaign On Clean Energy?
David Roberts makes the case:
Clean energy isolates the Republican base from the broad mass of American opinion and, in particular, from swing-state independents. It’s a wedge issue and an electoral winner for Democrats if they can quit playing defense and go on the attack. The appropriate response to threats from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is a well-administered ass kicking.
Ed Kilgore situates the argument in a broader context of Democratic unwillingness to sell its own agenda:
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Ad War Update: Gingrich Barrels Back
In a devastating preview ("Obamacare Inventor," "Swiss Bank," "Con Artists"), Newt's PAC debuts another documentary:
[Re-posted from earlier today. My debate live blog is here; our round-up of the blogosphere reaction is here.]
The PAC says "Blood Money" will air starting tomorrow at 5 pm EST. Andrew Kaczynski provided background on the Bain Medicare scandal a few days ago:
Romney and Bain Capital made huge profits when they sold Damon Corporation in 1993. But the strong revenues that the company had posted were created partially by criminal activity. Damon Corporation participated in a large scale Medicare scam, billing the government for blood tests that never occurred. The Boston Globe show that Romney personally made $473,000 when Corning Inc. purchased Damon Corp. from Bain in 1993. Romney sat on the board of Damon Corp. from 1990-1993, when a large amount of the fraud was occurring. After the sale of the company, Bain reaped in profits of over $7.4 million. In 1996, Damon Corporation pled guilty to federal conspiracy and defrauding the government out of $25 million. The record fine of $119 million was harsh penalty for scheme labeled by then US Attorney Donald Stern “a case, pure and simple, of corporate greed run amok.”
Next, a relatively insipid spot from Winning Our Future:
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The Daily Wrap
Today on the Dish, Andrew liveblogged Romney's triumph at the Jacksonville debate (insta-fact check here and reax here), explained why it was so critical to the primary, named something he would appreciate about a Romney presidency, picked out Dole and Drudge's parts in the establishment anti-Newt backlash, pitted Newt's cultural populism againt Obama's economic populism, and demolished Mitt's "Obama is a European socialist" line. Andrew also hoped Obama could buck his party on tax reform, loved his defense against the class warfare canard, saw his economic fortunes rising, examined homosociality, and found former RNC chair Ken Mehlman out-front on the marriage equality debate.
Debates might have been a bad way to vet candidates while tonight's was heavily anticipated. Romney retook the lead in Florida, Frum issued an apologia for Mitt's lying, and corporate taxes likely didn't up his tax rate to 50%. Gingrich took us to the moon (twice), obsessed over Saul Alinsky (despite their similarities), owed his success to Citizens United (and the press), terrified GOP elites (though they might not be able to stop him) engaged on the Reagan debate, and looked EXACTLY like Dwight Schrute. The GOP was whitewashing the 50s and the general shaped up to be nasty.
Calls for intervention in Syria kept coming, brinksmanship with China was (possibly) counterproductve, and the internet spread lies. A man married a lesbian and the origins of heterosexuality were uncovered. A venture capitalist (quixotically) went after Hollywood, an industry that condescended on race. Finally, readers sounded off over Paterno's legacy and the morality of the 1%. Yglesias Nominee here, Malkin Nominee here, Quote for the Day here, Ad War Updates here and here, MHB here, VFYW here, and FOTD here.
- Z.B.
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Florida CNN Debate Reax
Rod Dreher thought Romney wiped the floor with Gingrich:
Romney won this debate, and probably Florida, and so the nomination. Newt collapsed, as bullies and blowhards often do when somebody fights back. Santorum auditioned for Romney’s VP, and greatly enhanced his chances. Ron Paul shines on, that crazy diamond.
Will Wilkinson seconds him:
Romney started strong, completely obliterating Newt on immigration and questions about his finances, and then stayed strong. Santorum again turned in an admirably dogged performance, but so what? Romney won the debate and the nomination.
Larison likewise expects a Romney win in Florida:
Romney held off Gingrich, and Gingrich was flailing most of the night. Unless something strange happens in the next few days, Romney should hold his lead in Florida. Santorum may have gained a little, but nowhere near enough to challenge for second place. Paul did a decent job tonight, but Florida is not a good state for him and he’s already looking to the caucus events in February.
Jonah Goldberg gives Gingrich low marks:
I would have bet before the debate that Newt was going to re-energize the race tonight and win the Florida primary. Now, I kind of doubt it.
W. James Antle III agrees:
Gingrich seemed tired, unprepared, and off his game tonight -- bad timing for the former House speaker. Romney had some clunkers -- he got caught redhanded on the anti-Newt attack ad, the line about not making his own investments could come back to haunt him, and he denied being politically involved during a time period that included a Senate campaign -- but he had the better showing overall. I'm seeing many people argue that Gingrich has sharpened Romney as a candidate.
PM Carpenter was amazed by the fight in Romney:
I'm as stunned by Romney's vitality and aggressiveness as Gingrich is. I thought Romney would coast tonight as best he could, given his upward movement -- i.e., Gingrich's downward movement -- in Florida polls. But Romney clearly believes he is now fighting for his political life, and that Florida might be his firewall after all.
E.D. Kain's verdict:
Fundamentally, Romney was much better than we’ve seen him in some time. He started out a little sketchy, but rallied early on and got plenty of kidney punches in at Newt. Both Ron Paul and Rick Santorum sounded more sincere than either Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney. Of course I find most of the things Santorum actually says fairly repulsive, while I find Ron Paul to be a continued breath of fresh air and sanity. Yes, I find most of what Paul says thousands of times saner than what his GOP rivals say. And Paul says a lot of crazy things.
Kain notes that InTrade is betting overwhelmingly on a Romney win in Florida. Dave Weigel ponders Santorum's attack on Romneycare:
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Romney Backs European Economics
While Obama pursues American Keynesian exceptionalism.
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Romney's Voting Record
He lied tonight. Money quote:
Mitt Romney said, "I've never voted for a Democrat when there was a Republican on the ballot." ... He voted for Senator Paul Tsongas, a Massachusetts Democrat, when he ran in 1992 for the presidential nomination against Bill Clinton, among others. That was the same day, and the same year, that President George H.W. Bush and Pat Buchanan were on the Republican ballot.
As an independent, Mr. Romney could have voted in either party's primary, and apparently chose to vote for the Democrat.
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Live-Blogging The Jacksonville Debate
10.10 pm. Some reader points:
Jefferson's original draft of the Declaration said, "We hold these truths to be sacred and undeniable." After Adams and Franklin reviewed it, the phrase became "self-evident." The change, I think, underscores your point that there was a considered secularism to the final text.
Another:
If Romney wins this thing, we can say that Newt has transformed Romney from a conference room candidate into a modern day Republican party politician. We'll see if he can live with himself.
Oh he can live with himself. Another:
Santorum may have gotten applause for that answer, but it pure nonsense to say America was founded on “God-given rights.” What, like slavery and limiting the right to vote to men? So when we emancipated the slaves, we were going against God’s will?
10.01 pm. Given Mitt's big financial advantage in advertizing in Florida, and the two debates, I think Gingrich lost this campaign in the past week. It wasn't just the Drudge-Fox-Coulter establishment that will have done it. It was his much improved debate performance tonight. Probably foolish to say but if Romney wins Florida, with a winner-takes-all delegate haul, Newt's wait for Super Tuesday will be a long and nail-biting one. Ron Paul? Oh, it's only just begun.
The question is whether Paul's and Santorum's great performances - better than Newt or Mitt - will now alter the race. And how.
9.59 pm. Romney gives a brief, short stump speech. It goes down well. It is also instantly forgettable. Newt's final summary was, I think, his best moment tonight. The case for a Big Election means a Big Ideological Radical. Santorum then talks about the "global warming hoax." Santorum is right that Obama's manufacturing section in his SOTU was ripping off Santorum.
9.58 pm. Sorry, Ron, Obama ended the war in Iraq; he did not expand it. And he is winding down the war in Afghanistan, after decimating al Qaeda and killing bin Laden.
9.49 pm. Only Ron Paul understands the correct role of religion. Fantastic answer. Brief, sweet, genuine, and Christian, not Christianist. Of these four, I'd vote for him tonight. But most will surely go for Mitt.
But this was an evangelical question about a Mormon. Romney dodges it. Is Mormonism part of the Judeo-Christian tradition? Advice to Newt: don't use the words "truly faithful." Both Romney and Gingrich are endorsing the fusion of religion and politics that is now at the core of the current GOP.
Santorum then insists that all our rights come from God. Why do they not notice that the key phrase in that sentence is "we hold these truths to be self-evident." What I think is brilliant about that sentence is its nuance, its founding this country on something "self-evident." The "Creator" line has always truck me as rote - not unimportant, but routine for the time. What was new for the time was that rather post-modern attempt not to prove the truths of individual freedom, or defend them on the basis of divine authority, but to base them on a self-reinforcing, impenetrable, simple assertion that the argument they are about to make is "self-evident."
The biggest epistemological dodge imaginable. And the most brilliant. Have a fight with someone nad hear them defend their position as "self-evident." Would that seem like he was invoking divine authority as his primary case?
9.42 pm. Fantastic question from a Palestinian-American insisting he exists. Then Romney pretends that Abbas and Fayyad are no different than Hamas. And a big lie. Not only has Obama spoken of the rockets coming into Israel, he went to Sderot, the town under attack! Then there cannot be "an inch" between the US and Israel. Which means the US must support the permanent annexation and colonization of Judea and Samaria and have our foreign policy determined by the neo-fascist, Avigdor Lieberman.
Then Gingrich panders to the Florida Jewish vote with his bid to move the embassy to Jerusalem. Adelson has gotten his money's worth. There is no mention of the progress in the West Bank or of the shift in the Palestinian leadership these past few years. The PA did not fire rcokets into Jerusalem.
9.38 pm. Once again, Paul is fucking hilarious. "I'd ask Raul Castro what he was calling about!" Then a heroic - yes heroic - attack on the Cuba embargo and its anachronism. I'm beginning to wonder if Paul's and Santorum's vote will increase after tonight. And from whom each might take some votes. Probably from Gingrich. This has been a disastrous night for him, and because of today's coordinated attacks, I wanted him to fight back.
9.36 pm. A reader gets it right, I think:
I've never seen Gingrich more caught off guard than when he was asked to defend the Swiss bank account attack. He was completely ready to back down but then, in true Newtonian fashion, decided to blindly fight back. Unfortunately for him, Romney was more than ready to answer these baseless attacks about where Romney's money is held. Gingrich has never seemed more confused and off-balance than he was in that moment. He flailingly reached for a counter-attack about Romney's own ads but had nothing specific that he could think of on the spot.
It was the best exposure of Gingrich two-facedness I've ever seen, and I hope it helps tank his campaign.
9.35 pm. Gingrich finally wins a round. The Reagan one.
9.32 pm. A reader writes:
The kid glove treatment Gingrich has used towards Paul seems like a calculation to me. In his mind, he thinks that he could sway the young and intelligent Ron Paul supporters to his cause by co-opting some of his ideas and treating him with more respect than he shows Romney or Santorum. He's fooling himself, but what else is new?
Another notes:
For a second there, when Newt mentioned all "three" ladies would be great first ladies, I thought he was talking about his wives, former and current. Just when you think it's safe to pause for a drink of water. I almost choked.
9.28 pm. Holy shit. Romney actually reminded people that his only wife had both multiple sclerosis and cancer and he stuck with her. Wow. When he wants to stab someone in the front, he knows how. Another slam dunk for Romney. But Santorum's touching answer about his children was also powerful. And will win many panhandle evangelical votes with this.
9.26 pm. Yes, you weren't hallucinating. The crowd cheered the individual mandate at one point. And if only Obama had made the defense of his healthcare reform as effectively as Romney did so tonight. It really shows Obama's political malpractice in never ever truly defending his signature reform. Cowardice: pure and simple.
9.23 pm. A few dissents from my judgment that Romney has wrapped this up. One reader:
Actually Mitt came off as a rich prick. Who says "it wasn't my decision; it was a blind trust!" A rich prick that's who.
Another:
Romney pwning Newt? WTF? Anyone from the South will tell you that Newt is kicking Romney's ass around the room.
Sorry, not buying it.
9.22 pm. A perfect Romney phrase: "a terrific Hispanic leader."
9.21 pm. Gingrich all but offers Rubio the veep slot. Panderrrrr!
9.20 pm. A reader writes:
Newt Gingrich pulled off some miracle wins recently, but now the game film is out on him. Now everyone knows how to take away his greatest asset. In short, he's Tim Tebow. And we all know what happened when Tebow went up against an organization that was well run from top to bottom.
9.19 pm. The Gingrich-Paul strange bromance continues.
9.17 pm. Romney is attacking Obama for cutting Medicare. And Santorum destroys Romney on the individual mandate. This is Santorum at his debating best.
9.09 pm. A rip-roaring answer from Romney on healthcare. But none of them is tackling the core issue: healthcare costs. Then Santorum focuses on Obamacare and Romneycare, both have which have individual mandates and free market insurance policy exchanges. He's right that both Newt and Mitt are crippled in their attacks on the health insurance reform. Santorum totally pwned him on that one: "we cannot give away this issue in this campaign." That's even truer if the economy is reviving.
Then Romney makes the core philosophical point for Obamacare. It was very eloquent. Even Obama hasn't put the case for his own healthcare policy so well. Which kinda proves Santorum's point, doesn't it?
9.08 pm. But, Newt, what if she cannot afford to buy any of the insurance policies on offer in the private sector? Has that occurred to you?
9.05 pm. Ron Paul is sparkling tonight. He even attacked Reagan's fiscal irresponsibility and called Newt on his fiscal record. If I lived in Florida and were a Republican and a citizen - ha! - I'd vote for Paul after tonight. Romney is walking away with this, but Paul is easily the more honest. Oddly, the dynamic tonight is helping Paul and Santorum - which is more bad news for Newt.
9.01 pm. Newt is coming back on space, I think. At least he sounds confident and optimistic. And he has a point about the collateral inspiration of NASA. Romney does really well against Newt on the pandering issue. This is over. Even when Newt seems to rally, Romney comes back with a real slam. But, wait, Newt is returning with a good point about listening to local concerns. And then Newt revives with a riff on greatness.
8.56 pm. I'm sorry but space policy puts me in an instant coma. But they all sounded fine. I can't imagine anything they are now saying will have any impact in even the tiniest way on anything in the actual world. The best answer was Santorum's.
8.53 pm. Paul's response to the medical records was one of the best of the night: funny, charming, and to the point. All candidates, by the way, agree to do this year what Sarah Palin refused to do in the last cycle. And for asking for those medical records, I was accused by Fox News of not being an "actual journalist."
8.51 pm. The last question and Santorum's response on exempting the very wealthy from any contribution to reducing the debt and the deficit is the reason Obama has easily the stronger argument in this election.
8.45 pm. So Newt tries to regain the initiative by bashing the media. Then he loses the battle with Wolf Blitzer - and allows Romney once again to win the exchange. Brutal. Newt is finished. If he can't win on his own turf in his own game - demagoguing in front of a Southern debate audience (this is Jacksonville, not Miami) - then he has lost the whole thing.
8.40 pm. Then Santorum jumps on the Paul note and demands an end to all this personal Newt-Mitt bickering. Disingenuous, of course. But the right move for him. Rick and Ron won the crowd on this one in the end, but Romney's early brutalization of Newt will remain in voters' minds. He took the alpha dog position from the get-go; and Newt's attempt to go after him backfired.
That's the worst combo for a fighter like Newt. If you throw a rhetorical grenade, make sure your opponent doesn't have the time and opportunity to throw it back. This means Newt has got to have a strong counter-attack now that sticks. But the dynamic is going against him.
8.39 pm. And then Ron Paul, with a dose of humor and integrity, breaks the ice with a lovely riff on the Newt-Mitt death match and then moves onto the real issue of GSEs.
8.36 pm. Newt goes after Romney on earning investments from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Romney says it wasn't his decision; it was a blind trust. Then he says that Newt has investments in Freddie Mac himself. How did Newt not see that coming? Then Romney brings up the lobbying for Freddie Mac. And Newt is knocked flat into the ropes again. Anoher knockout for Romney.
8.33 pm. Do I believe that Mitt Romney didn't know about the language in his own ad? Or did he just feign ignorance in order to force Newt to repeat what he said. And he got that done, twice. He's destroying Newt right now. And now he's on a Freddie Mac roll against Newt. This first round is going to Romney by a mile.
8.31 pm. Paul points out the core element of Rick Santorum's foreign policy: the use of force.
8.29 pm. A reader notes:
Santorum wants on the Romney ticket ... and tonight the public overtures start. And if you think about it, this being Santorum's last stand, and maybe last chance at anything, it's the smart thing to do. He's everything Mitt isn't. (Not a Mormon, not filthy rich, and not a stiff empty suit.) And he'd be a great attack dog, letting Mitt take the high road.
Seaking of which, Santorum just accused Obama of "siding with Marxists" and believes that there is a burgeoning Jihadist movement in Central and South America.
8.27 pm. My favorite line so far: you need to be "more realistic in your indignation." Yes, that was a quote from Newt.
8.20 pm. It's getting pissy fast. Romney wins a huge point by attacking Newt for calling him anti-immigrant. He shows anger. He shows passion. And Newt doesn't counter-attack with the same level of anger. Romney is killing him so far. And Newt ends up defending "grandmothers". And Romney pwns him again. Newt's red faced jowls contrast with Romney's calm Bob Forehead.
And then Romney manages to bring up the Newt gaffe when he spoke about Spanish being the language of the ghetto. And then makes the English-only language. You have to hand it to Romney: he just out-Newted Newt.
8.14 pm. Grandmothers won't self-deport, says Newt. A nice blend of red meat for the panhandle and serious compassion for long-term illegal immigrants. Romney accidentally calls 11 million illegal immigrants "Americans." But he then tries to seem compasionate toward immigrants who are brought across the border by coyotes.
8.13 pm. Santorum wins the introduction round. What great teeth his mother has. And then he loses the Latino vote for support from the Jacksonville crowd.
8.06 pm. It's on. Quote of the night:
“Look at Newt Gingrich, what’s going on with him, via the establishment’s attacks. They’re trying to crucify this man and rewrite history, and rewrite what it is that he has stood for all these years.”
That's Palin. And by the way, that would require a pretty sturdy cross.
7.57 pm. This graph from TPM and the tsunami of establishment slime against Newt seems to me to suggest one thing. Newt is back up against the wall, and we know what that means. At least I hope so. All this piling on has made me want to support the underdog, and see him savage Romney tonight from the get-go.
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You Know It's Bad When ...
... it's becoming a Limbaugh-Drudge war as well. One suspects the influence of anti-Newt drag queen, Coulter. Rush blames the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy:
Rush Limbaugh, on his radio show on Thursday, also took note of the headlines, calling it a “coordinated” effort to smear Mr. Gingrich. “Now, when I saw all it is stuff — and obviously it’s a coordinated document dump here, opposition research dump. It’s obviously coordinated.”
You know what this means, don't you? Drudge is now The Establishment.
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Newt's Secret Love Affair With The Press
Adam Clymer claims that Gingrich "doesn’t hate the press as much as he makes you think":
After last week’s debate, when he blasted CNN’s King for asking about his second ex-wife’s "open marriage" charge, he went up to him and chatted amiably. Next he praised King on CNN. Then he trashed him on Fox. So Thursday night at the next debate, whether he makes nice to Wolf Blitzer, CNN’s moderator in Jacksonville, or rips his head off, you’ll be seeing just one of the two Gingriches.
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Why GOP Elites Fear Gingrich
Sabato's Crystal Ball created an electoral map for a Gingrich-Obama race:
In several Midwestern swing states, Republicans gained many House seats in 2010 that, thanks to their control of redistricting, they sought to lock in through aggressive remapping. Under this map, all of those states — Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — would be tough territory for Gingrich. If his candidacy were a disaster, those new Republican gerrymanders could unravel. The close battle for the Senate could also be affected — Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia all have competitive Senate races this year, and all of those states get bluer on our map under a hypothetical Gingrich candidacy.
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Get Ready To Rumble
John Cassidy takes out the popcorn:
Making a grave tactical error, Gingrich tried to remain above the fray in Tampa, dismissing Mitt’s attacks as beneath him. The format of the debate didn’t help him either. For reasons that still aren’t clear—a request from the Romney campaign?—the NBC organizers told the audience to keep quiet. As far as Newt was concerned, this was like asking a Roman gladiator to do battle in a silent Coliseum. In Myrtle Beach and Charleston, it was obvious, even on television, that he was feeding off the energy of the Republican audience. In tonight’s debate, which starts at 8 P.M., expect to see the full Newt.
Gingrich tested out new attacks on the trail today:
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Gingrich: To The Moon And Beyond! Ctd
Zeke Miller dug up the bill Congressman Gingrich proposed for providing a path for lunar statehood, the "National Space and Aeronautics Policy Act of 1981":
Gingrich appears to have misstated the number of lunar colonists required for a space-based outpost to apply for statehood — the number is 20,000 for self-government in the original bill, not the 13,000 he mentioned yesterday. Statehood requires the population of the least populous state — or greater than Wyoming's 563,626 people in the 2010 Census.
A reader chimes in:
I’m a liberal Democrat, so there isn’t a chance in hell I would vote for Gingrich, or any of the other GOP candidates for that matter. And yet, I find myself admiring at least this one aspect of Newt - unlike his opponents (and, for that matter, nearly every other national candidate of either party over the last generation), he is willing to think outside the box and he does seem to have a love for "big ideas".
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Lying To Get Elected
David Frum excuses Romney's caricatures of Obama:
[E]lections turn on more than facts, promises, and programs — especially this current campaign for the Republican nomination for president. More perhaps than most, this election turns on shared feelings. Many Republican primary voters have been sold a narrative or image of the Obama presidency in which a radical socialist alien president is seeking to wreck and overturn the American way of life and the free enterprise system. That narrative is nuts, but unless you signal that you share the nuttiness, your campaign goes the way of Jon Huntsman's.
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Face Of The Day
A setter hunting dog is pictured during a press preview prior to the fair known as "Jagd und Hund" (Hunt and Dog) at the fairgrounds in Dortmund, western Germany, on January 25, 2012. The hunting and fishing trade fair will open its doors to visitors from January 31 to February 5, 2012. By Patrik Stollarz/AFP/Getty Images.
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Gingrich Didn't Always Love Reagan, Ctd
Robert Costa expects Reagan revisionism to factor prominently in the Florida primary:
Romney’s supporters sense that their candidate must go after Gingrich’s broader campaign themes, not only details of his past. Tonight, look for Romney to mention more than Reagan’s diary, and to come armed with details of Gingrich’s less-than-friendly quotes about Reagan, most from Gingrich’s early days in Congress, including Gingrich’s 1986 potshot, when he said Reagan was “failing” to meet the Soviet threat. If Romney finds a way to instill doubt in viewers’ minds about Gingrich’s lofty Reagan recolllections, his campaign believes that Gingrich could be crippled.
Gingrich supporters have rushed out this video, in which Nancy Reagan says:
The dramatic movement of 1995 is an outgrowth of a much earlier crusade that goes back half a century. Barry Goldwater handed the torch to Ronnie, and in turn Ronnie turned that torch over to Newt and the Republican members of Congress to keep that dream alive.
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Malkin Award Nominee
"It's pretty simple: marriage is between a man and a woman. This is a historic doctrine driven deep into the Bible, both in the Old Testament and in the New Testament, and it's a perfect example of what I mean by the rise of paganism. The effort to create alternatives to marriage between a man and a woman are perfectly natural pagan behaviors, but they are a fundamental violation of our civilization," - Newt Gingrich. Add it to the Annals Of Chutzpah as well.
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Mental Health Break
Seventy-one covers of Adele's hit song mashed into one:
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What Did The 1% Do Wrong? Ctd
A ton of response from the in-tray. One reader:
The question pretty much answers itself in most cases - nothing. I think the more interesting question is, "To what extent have the 1% benefited disproportionately from public funds on infrastructure, education, and public safety?" I think the answer to that is generally "a lot." I am very much like you. I pay probably half my income in taxes of one form or another, including a sizeable chunk of federal income and payroll taxes. It pisses me off that someone like Romney can pay only 13.9% despite clearly disproportionate benefit. What I want is equity, not redistribution, and I think the majority of Americans would agree.
Another writes:
The trouble with Romney isn't that he's wealthy. The trouble is that he's rich for a living, the way some people are famous for being famous. His existing wealth allows him to accumulate - not generate - more wealth on an open-ended basis.
Another snarks:
Wilkinson is exactly right: the 1 percent get their money just like everyone else. I mean, who among us hasn’t inherited enormous wealth from their rich daddy, or lobbied to get special tax treatment for their income, or taken advantage of foreign tax shelters?
Another:
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Bob Dole Hates Newt
It's a classic, but I suspect his clout is not exactly Sarah Palin's any more. My favorite line:
Newt would show up at the campaign headquarters with an empty bucket in his hand — that was a symbol of some sort for him — and I never did know what he was doing or why he was doing it, and I’m not certain he knew either.
That's the Dole we love. A dose of dry humor with the arsenic. Pity the establishment he seems to represent no longer exists.
